Al Shabab 1-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Shabab host Al Okhdood at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Shabab haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.65 xG and Al Okhdood 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.995 / defence 0.951 | Al Okhdood attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.284. Data: 30 Al Shabab games / 0 Al Okhdood games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 52% | Draw 24% | Al Okhdood 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Al Okhdood 4.17. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 52% | Draw 24% | Al Okhdood 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Shabab 1.65 / Al Okhdood 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.995 / def 0.951 | Al Okhdood attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al Okhdood xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 14 August 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Al Shabab 1 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 52% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Okhdood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Okhdood in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 0.99x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.08
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.69
1.04
Al Okhdood xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
5%
21.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.04 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Pre-Season
Al Okhdood
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
4
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al Shabab 2-0 Al Okhdood.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al Shabab and Al Okhdood share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Al Shabab and Al Okhdood drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.65 xG and Al Okhdood 1.04 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Al Okhdood attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 52% | Draw 24% | Al Okhdood 24%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.