Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha meet at King Fahd International Stadium in Pro League (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2023, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–0 Al-Fayha — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% versus Al-Fayha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Al-Fayha 48%). Note also that Al-Fayha surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Al-Hilal Saudi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.54 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.192 / defence 0.961 | Al-Fayha attack 0.914 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.383. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 31 games and Al-Fayha's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.23 | Draw 3.98 | Al-Fayha 3.33. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 31 games, Al-Fayha 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 2 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.54 / Al-Fayha 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.192 / def 0.961 | Al-Fayha attack 0.914 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 2) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 45% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.91x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 31 games and Al-Fayha's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
45%
2.23
25%
3.98
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.22 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 31 games, going 18W 8D 5L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across their last 15 home games, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 15 away games (4W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.10 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al-Fayha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 18W 8D 5L in their last 31 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 9W 9D 13L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 20 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Fayha on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 August 2026: Al-Fayha 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al-Fayha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 47% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 53% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 47% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 53% of Al-Fayha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha finished level at 1-1 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.54 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Al-Fayha attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 30%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%, Al-Fayha 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.