Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Nassr at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 1). Kick-off is Monday 14 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Nassr have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al-Nassr and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al-Nassr — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 37% versus Al-Nassr 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al-Nassr 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Ettifaq surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Al-Nassr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG and Al-Nassr 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.931 / defence 0.981 | Al-Nassr attack 1.095 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.284. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 30 games and Al-Nassr's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.35 | Draw 3.73 | Al-Nassr 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 20% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Al-Ettifaq 30 games, Al-Nassr 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.10 / Al-Nassr 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.931 / def 0.981 | Al-Nassr attack 1.095 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Nassr xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 14 August 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 30 games and Al-Nassr's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
30%
3.35
27%
3.73
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.48
1.38
Al-Nassr xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
8%
13.31
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.38 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 7D 13L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.23 PPG from 30 outings (20W 7D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 7W 3D 5L across their last 15 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.87 points per game from their last 15 away games (8W 4D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.10 scored and 0.60 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
Al-Nassr
Pre-Season
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al-Nassr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
Al-Nassr
Pre-Season
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 20W 7D 3L in their last 30 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won Al-Ettifaq 0-3 Al-Nassr.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2026: Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ettifaq 40% BTTS, Al-Nassr 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ettifaq) and 47% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 60%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 27% of games; Al-Nassr in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 20% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 47% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 67% of Al-Nassr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG and Al-Nassr 1.38 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Al-Nassr attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 43%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al-Nassr 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.