Al-Raed 0-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Raed face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Thursday 24 August 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al-Raed have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Al-Raed.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 56% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 69% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.973 / defence 1.139 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.177 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.389. Data: 32 Al-Raed games / 32 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 24% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 24% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Raed 1.17 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.973 / def 1.139 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.177 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 24 August 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Raed 0 - 4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 24% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
24%
4.21
23%
4.42
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.03
1.86
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.21
24%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
4%
27.10
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.86 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 9W 7D 16L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 18W 9D 5L from 32 games, 1.97 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 4D 3L from 16 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.81 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 9W 7D 16L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 18W 9D 5L in their last 32 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al-Raed
1
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2025, when Al-Raed 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 56%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Al-Raed) and 44% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 31% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Raed's matches and 44% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Raed 0-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.86 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.90, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 24% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 69%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.