Al-Hazm 1-3 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al-Fayha travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ar-Rass Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 1D 6L this season (9 games, 0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 3.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.00 PPG, Al-Fayha 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al-Fayha 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Fayha trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 68% and Al-Fayha 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 58% | Al-Fayha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.40 xG and Al-Fayha 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.813 / defence 1.622 | Al-Fayha attack 0.942 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.415. Data: 19 Al-Hazm games / 49 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Fayha 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.17 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fayha 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 56% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Fayha 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Hazm 1.40 / Al-Fayha 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.813 / def 1.622 | Al-Fayha attack 0.942 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Al-Fayha xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Hazm 1 - 3 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 24% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hazm 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.81) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
24%
4.13
21%
4.76
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
0 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.56
2.16
Al-Fayha xG
4.13
24%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
12%
8.69
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
3%
35.86
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.16 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.68 PPG on a 2W 7D 10L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 4W 7D 8L from 19 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 0.68 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.00 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 7D 10L in their last 19 games (0.68 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.78 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hazm at 56%, Al-Fayha at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Hazm and 67% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Hazm's games and 78% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Hazm's matches and 67% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Hazm 1-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.40 xG and Al-Fayha 2.16 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 2.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.81 / defence 1.62 against Al-Fayha attack 0.94 / defence 1.18, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Fayha 55%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 58%, Al-Fayha 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 0.68 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.