Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Fayha face Abha.

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Analysis & Preview

Abha travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha in Pro League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fayha stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Abha have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 3.30. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Abha have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 0.80 PPG, Abha 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al-Fayha have won 1, Abha 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Aug 2023, ended Al-Fayha 1–2 Abha — a Abha win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Al-Fayha trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Abha trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 50% versus Abha 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 50% | Abha 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.80 xG and Abha 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.731 / defence 1.105 | Abha attack 0.955 / defence 1.691. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.403. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.80. Abha's defence rating of 1.691 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 50 games and Abha's last 50.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 25% | Abha 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.26 | Draw 3.98 | Abha 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Abha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 30% (last 10 home games) | Abha 60% (last 10 away games).

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