Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al Riyadh to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 5W 1D 4L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Riyadh — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad FC 1.20 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Riyadh in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad FC, 0 for Al Riyadh and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2023, ended 4–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 53% versus Al Riyadh 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 63% | Al Riyadh 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.51 xG and Al Riyadh 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.209 / defence 1.300 | Al Riyadh attack 0.828 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.424. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Al-Ittihad FC games / 19 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | Al Riyadh 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al Riyadh 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 72% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.51 / Al Riyadh 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.209 / def 1.300 | Al Riyadh attack 0.828 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Al Riyadh xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 0 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 59% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.21) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
59%
1.70
19%
5.27
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
4.04
1.53
Al Riyadh xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.60
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
8%
12.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
2%
55.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.53 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 9W 4D 6L from 19 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 10L across 19 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 4W 1D 4L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 0.89 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
1
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Riyadh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al Riyadh 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 78%, Al Riyadh at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Al-Ittihad FC and 89% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 67% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 89% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Riyadh 2-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.51 xG and Al Riyadh 1.53 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Riyadh landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.30 against Al Riyadh attack 0.83 / defence 1.42, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 22%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 63%, Al Riyadh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.