Damac 0-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dhamak Club Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al Shabab in Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Damac (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Damac's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Al Shabab away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Damac. A 0.80 PPG lead over Al Shabab (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Al Shabab, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2023, ended Damac 1–1 Al Shabab — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al Shabab have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 57% versus Al Shabab 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 53% | Al Shabab 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Damac surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Al Shabab have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Al Shabab surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Damac recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.98 xG and Al Shabab 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.315 / defence 0.910 | Al Shabab attack 0.777 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.414. Damac carry an above-average attack rating of 1.315 — their 1.98 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al Shabab's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Damac's last 49 games and Al Shabab's last 49.
Result probabilities: Damac 60% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 18%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.67 | Draw 4.48 | Al Shabab 5.57. The model has a clear lean to Damac (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Damac carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Damac 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 60% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Damac 1.98 / Al Shabab 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.315 / def 0.910 | Al Shabab attack 0.777 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Damac (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al Shabab xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al Shabab FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al Shabab kick off?
Damac vs Al Shabab kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Friday 16 February 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Damac 0 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Damac vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Shabab part of?
Damac vs Al Shabab is a Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 60% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Damac and Al Shabab will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Damac's attack rating (1.31) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.78x) against Damac's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 49 games and Al Shabab's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.48
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Damac xG
Total xG
2.98
1.00
Al Shabab xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
2%
40.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al Shabab Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Damac and 1.00 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 15D 17L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.57 PPG from 49 outings (22W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Damac against 1.57 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Damac's home form reads 10W 9D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 24 away games (7W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Shabab's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.55 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al Shabab (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al Shabab Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Shabab away?
Damac's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.62 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Damac or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Damac and Al Shabab, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won Damac 1-4 Al Shabab on 31 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
3
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al Shabab H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 1, Al Shabab have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Shabab last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Damac 1-3 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Damac, 71% for Al Shabab — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Damac and 62% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al Shabab Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al Shabab matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Damac's games and 71% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Damac and Al Shabab matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Damac's matches and 62% of Al Shabab's.
Do Damac and Al Shabab matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Damac's recent matches and 83% of Al Shabab's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Shabab defy the odds to beat Damac 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Damac 0-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.98 xG and Al Shabab 1.00 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Damac fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.31 / defence 0.91 against Al Shabab attack 0.78 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 60% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 18%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Al Shabab win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 53%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.35 PPG, Al Shabab 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.