Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al-Hazm welcome Al Khaleej Saihat to Ar-Rass Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Ar-Rass Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Khaleej Saihat are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 70% and Al Khaleej Saihat 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.18 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.784 / defence 1.663 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.845 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.414. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Al-Hazm games / 50 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 21% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al Khaleej Saihat (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% BTTS from recent games.

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