Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Hazm welcome Al Khaleej Saihat to Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al Khaleej Saihat — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Khaleej Saihat are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Khaleej Saihat 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2023, ended Al-Hazm 1–1 Al Khaleej Saihat — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 70% and Al Khaleej Saihat 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.18 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.784 / defence 1.663 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.845 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.414. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.663 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 20 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 50.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 21% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.67 | Draw 4.29 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Al Khaleej Saihat (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.18 / 1.99) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% (last 10 away games).

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