Portimonense 1-0 Farense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Portimonense at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs Farense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Farense travel to Estádio Municipal de Portimão to take on Portimonense. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 January 2024, 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portimonense stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Portimonense have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estádio Municipal de Portimão — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Farense have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Farense have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Farense — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Portimonense in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Farense in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 69% versus Farense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 56% | Farense 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.55 xG and Farense 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.843 / defence 1.126 | Farense attack 0.967 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.240. Farense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Portimonense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Portimonense games / 16 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 42% | Draw 25% | Farense 33%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Farense 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Portimonense as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Farense (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portimonense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 70% | Farense 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jan 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 42% | Draw 25% | Farense 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Portimonense 1.55 / Farense 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.843 / def 1.126 | Farense attack 0.967 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Farense xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Farense kick off?
Portimonense vs Farense kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 12 January 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Farense?
Portimonense 1 - 0 Farense.
Where is Portimonense vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Farense part of?
Portimonense vs Farense is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 42% chance of winning, Farense a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Portimonense and Farense will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Farense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portimonense and Farense in?
Portimonense (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Farense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Portimonense's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Farense's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Portimonense's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
42%
2.38
25%
4.02
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.90
1.35
Farense xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.35 for Farense, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portimonense come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 3D 9L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Farense sit at 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portimonense on 0.94 PPG, Farense on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Portimonense's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Farense have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Portimonense are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.44 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Portimonense have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
Farense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Farense in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Farense have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Farense away?
Portimonense's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.14 PPG; Farense away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Farense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Farense in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Portimonense
0
Draws
0
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Farense?
From 2 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 2, Farense have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Farense last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Farense 1-3 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Farense?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Portimonense at 86%, Farense at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Portimonense) and 57% (Farense). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Farense in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Farense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Portimonense's games and 57% of Farense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Portimonense vs Farense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Portimonense's matches and 57% of Farense's.
Do Portimonense and Farense tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Farense in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portimonense edge out Farense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Farense 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.55 xG and Farense 1.35 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Farense landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Farense attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 42% | Draw 25% | Farense 33%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 56%, Farense 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Farense's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portimonense 0.94 PPG, Farense 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Portimonense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.