Dundalk 2-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dundalk at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dundalk face Bohemians.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Dundalk's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dundalk's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Dundalk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Bohemians have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Dundalk, 1 for Bohemians and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2023, ended Dundalk 2–3 Bohemians — a Bohemians win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 50% versus Bohemians 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 51% | Bohemians 47%). Note also that Bohemians surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Dundalk recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.67 xG and Bohemians 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.291 / defence 1.070 | Bohemians attack 0.911 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 0.978. Dundalk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.291 — their 1.67 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Dundalk's last 70 games and Bohemians's last 70.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 54% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 21%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.86 | Draw 3.97 | Bohemians 4.76. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dundalk 70% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 35 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 54% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Dundalk 1.67 / Bohemians 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.291 / def 1.070 | Bohemians attack 0.911 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.475 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bohemians xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Bohemians FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Bohemians kick off?
Dundalk vs Bohemians kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 27 October 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk 2 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Bohemians part of?
Dundalk vs Bohemians is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 35) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 54% chance of winning, Bohemians a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dundalk and Bohemians will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Dundalk vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.29) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.91x) against Dundalk's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 70 games and Bohemians's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.97
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.62
0.95
Bohemians xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
4%
25.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Bohemians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.95 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 32W 19D 19L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 27W 20D 23L from 70 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Dundalk against 1.44 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 2.09 PPG from their last 35 home games (21W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 11W 11D 13L from their last 35 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.34 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
Dundalk (Home) vs Bohemians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Dundalk vs Bohemians Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 32W 19D 19L in their last 70 games (1.64 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 27W 20D 23L in their last 70 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Bohemians away?
Dundalk's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.09 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bohemians in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Dundalk and Bohemians, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 2 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
2
Draws
5
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Bohemians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 3, Bohemians have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Bohemians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 October 2026: Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 60%, Bohemians 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Dundalk) and 37% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bohemians in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Bohemians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Bohemians matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dundalk's games and 51% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dundalk and Bohemians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Dundalk's recent games and 37% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Bohemians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Dundalk's recent matches and 54% of Bohemians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Bohemians 2-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.67 xG and Bohemians 0.95 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.29 / defence 1.07 against Bohemians attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 54% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 21%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 51%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.64 PPG, Bohemians 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.