Shelbourne 3-2 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shelbourne (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shelbourne face UCD.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shelbourne and UCD meet at Tolka Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
UCD have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, UCD have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 3.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Shelbourne. A 1.70 PPG lead over UCD (1.90 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Shelbourne have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with UCD managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2023, ended 4–0 with Shelbourne winning.
The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Shelbourne half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
UCD half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 46% versus UCD 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 34% | UCD 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 2.37 xG and UCD 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.933 / defence 0.904 | UCD attack 0.681 / defence 1.723. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 0.978. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.723 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Shelbourne games / 70 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 77% | Draw 16% | UCD 7%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 1.30 | Draw 6.25 | UCD 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Shelbourne (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 70% | UCD 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 77% | Draw 16% | UCD 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 41% | xG Shelbourne 2.37 / UCD 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.933 / def 0.904 | UCD attack 0.681 / def 1.723 | league avg home 1.475 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.60
UCD xG
41%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs UCD kick off?
Shelbourne vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Shelbourne 3 - 2 UCD.
Where is Shelbourne vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs UCD part of?
Shelbourne vs UCD is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 77% chance of winning, UCD a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shelbourne and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
Record (7 meetings): Shelbourne 4W | Draws 3 | UCD 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and UCD in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. UCD (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shelbourne's attack at 0.93x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.68x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
77%
1.31
16%
6.23
7%
13.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
3 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.97
0.60
UCD xG
1.31
77%
Home win
6.23
16%
Draw
13.62
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
9%
10.71
Win to Nil
42%
2.38
1%
145.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.60 for UCD, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 70 games, going 23W 26D 21L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, UCD sit at 0.57 PPG from 70 outings (9W 13D 48L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 13W 13D 8L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, UCD have taken 0.41 points per game from 34 outings (3W 5D 26L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.64 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and UCD in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 23W 26D 21L in their last 70 games (1.36 PPG), while UCD have gone 9W 13D 48L in their last 70 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or UCD away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; UCD away: 0.41 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, UCD in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won 0-4 on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
3
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 5, UCD have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2023, when Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and UCD?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, UCD 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Shelbourne) and 59% (UCD).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 29% of games; UCD in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 41% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Shelbourne's recent games and 59% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and UCD tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, UCD in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out UCD 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat UCD 3-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 2.37 xG and UCD 0.60 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. UCD outscored their 0.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against UCD attack 0.68 / defence 1.72, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 77% | Draw 16% | UCD 7%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 34%, UCD 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
UCD's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. UCD (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.