Bohemians 0-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians face St Patrick's Athl..

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Match Analysis

Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 34). Kick-off is Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Bohemians have gone 4W 5D 1L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bohemians's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

St Patrick's Athl. — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

St Patrick's Athl. away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians at 1.70 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Bohemians's games and 60% of St Patrick's Athl.'s (from Bohemians's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Trading Patterns

Bohemians in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 56% versus St Patrick's Athl. 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bohemians surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while St Patrick's Athl. have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.71 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.254 / defence 1.116 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.180 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 0.979. Bohemians carry an above-average attack rating of 1.254 — their 1.71 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bohemians's last 69 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 68.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 47% | Draw 24% | St Patrick's Athl. 29%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.13 | Draw 4.10 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.49. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 60% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 60% (last 10 away games).

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