Cork City 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Cork City face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Derry City travel to Turner's Cross to take on Cork City in Premier Division (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cork City stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cork City's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cork City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Derry City — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derry City — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Derry City have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Cork City. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Jun 2023, ended Cork City 0–2 Derry City — a Derry City win.
Derry City have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Cork City trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Derry City trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 48% versus Derry City 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 54% | Derry City 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 0.91 xG and Derry City 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.801 / defence 1.129 | Derry City attack 1.249 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 0.978. Derry City bring a tight defence (rating 0.770, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Cork City's projected output down. Derry City have an above-average attack rating of 1.249, which lifts their away xG to 1.38. Data: built from Cork City's last 33 games and Derry City's last 70.
Result probabilities: Cork City 24% | Draw 28% | Derry City 47%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 4.13 | Draw 3.51 | Derry City 2.11. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cork City 50% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 35 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 24% | Draw 28% | Derry City 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Cork City 0.91 / Derry City 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.801 / def 1.129 | Derry City attack 1.249 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.475 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Derry City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Derry City xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cork City vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Cork City vs Derry City kick off?
Cork City vs Derry City kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 27 October 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Derry City?
Cork City 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Cork City vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Derry City part of?
Cork City vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 35) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 24% chance of winning, Derry City a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cork City and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Cork City vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cork City's attack at 0.80x the league average against Derry City's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cork City's last 33 games and Derry City's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
24%
4.13
28%
3.51
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.29
1.38
Derry City xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
16.41
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.0 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cork City vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cork City and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Cork City and 1.38 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cork City's recent record stands at 8W 6D 19L from 33 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 7L across 33 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cork City have managed 6W 3D 7L from their last 16 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Cork City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Derry City's away record stands at 8W 4D 4L across their last 16 away games, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cork City are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.58 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
Cork City (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cork City
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Cork City vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Cork City and Derry City in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 8W 6D 19L in their last 33 games (0.91 PPG), while Derry City have gone 16W 10D 7L in their last 33 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.31 PPG; Derry City away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Cork City or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cork City have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Derry City in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was on 1 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cork City's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cork City
1
Draws
7
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Cork City vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Derry City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cork City have won 0, Derry City have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cork City and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2025: Cork City 0-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 50%, Derry City 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cork City) and 50% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Cork City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Derry City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cork City vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cork City and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cork City's recent matches and 44% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cork City and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cork City's recent games and 50% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cork City and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Cork City's recent matches and 81% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Cork City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Cork City 0-1 at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 0.91 xG and Derry City 1.38 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cork City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.80 / defence 1.13 against Derry City attack 1.25 / defence 0.77, drawn from 33/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 24% | Draw 28% | Derry City 47%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Derry City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.