Bohemians 4-0 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Cork City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Cork City travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 November 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Cork City — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cork City have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Bohemians have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bohemians, 1 for Cork City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with Cork City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cork City trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Cork City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 46% | Cork City 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.37 xG and Cork City 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.191 / defence 1.180 | Cork City attack 0.863 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 0.965. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Bohemians games / 35 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 68% | Draw 19% | Cork City 13%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Cork City 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 60% | Cork City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 68% | Draw 19% | Cork City 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 57% | xG Bohemians 2.37 / Cork City 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.191 / def 1.180 | Cork City attack 0.863 / def 1.402 | league avg home 1.419 / away 0.965 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cork City xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Cork City kick off?
Bohemians vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 November 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Cork City?
Bohemians 4 - 0 Cork City.
Where is Bohemians vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Cork City part of?
Bohemians vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 68% chance of winning, Cork City a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bohemians and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Cork City?
Record (3 meetings): Bohemians 2W | Draws 0 | Cork City 1W.
What form are Bohemians and Cork City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Cork City (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.19) and Cork City's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
68%
1.48
19%
5.23
13%
7.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.35
0.98
Cork City xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
7.50
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
9%
10.71
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
1%
80.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.98 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians come into this having played 35 games, going 15W 10D 10L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cork City sit at 0.89 PPG from 35 outings (8W 7D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Cork City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Cork City have taken 0.53 points per game from 17 outings (2W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Cork City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Cork City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 15W 10D 10L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Cork City have gone 8W 7D 20L in their last 35 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Cork City away?
Bohemians's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.82 PPG; Cork City away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Cork City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cork City in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Cork City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 22 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2023, when Bohemians won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bohemians
0
Draws
2
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Cork City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2025, when Bohemians 3-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Cork City?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 59%, Cork City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Bohemians and 65% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cork City in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Cork City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bohemians's recent matches and 47% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Cork City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Bohemians's matches and 65% of Cork City's.
Do Bohemians and Cork City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cork City in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cork City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Cork City 4-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 2.37 xG and Cork City 0.98 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cork City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.19 / defence 1.18 against Cork City attack 0.86 / defence 1.40, drawn from 71/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 68% | Draw 19% | Cork City 13%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 46%, Cork City 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cork City's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.