Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 OFI – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (73%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Olympiakos Piraeus face OFI.

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Match Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus host OFI at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Olympiakos Piraeus — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, OFI stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

OFI's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Olympiakos Piraeus are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for OFI and 0 draws.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2023, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 OFI — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.

The head-to-head data gives Olympiakos Piraeus an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

OFI in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 44% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | OFI 41%). Note also that OFI surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Olympiakos Piraeus recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.44 xG and OFI 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.322 / defence 0.945 | OFI attack 0.641 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.334. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.322 — their 2.44 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. OFI's attack rating of 0.641 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 47 games and OFI's last 47.

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 73% | Draw 18% | OFI 10%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.38 | Draw 5.65 | OFI 10.30. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (73%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and OFI's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% (last 10 home games) | OFI 40% (last 10 away games).

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