PAOK 1-4 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Current Form
PAOK's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in PAOK's favour (2.50 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from PAOK's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) — PAOK have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 43% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 57% | Olympiakos Piraeus 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.72 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.410 / defence 0.603 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.982 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.293. PAOK carry an above-average attack rating of 1.410 — their 1.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.780, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling PAOK's projected output down. PAOK have a tight defence (rating 0.603), which is pulling Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output down. Data: built from PAOK's last 48 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 48.
Result probabilities: PAOK 59% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 15%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.70 | Draw 3.86 | Olympiakos Piraeus 6.60. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (59%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 30% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 59% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG PAOK 1.72 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.410 / def 0.603 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.982 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: PAOK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 1 - 4 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 59% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (0.98x) against PAOK's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from PAOK's last 48 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.86
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.49
0.77
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
3%
36.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for PAOK and 0.77 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 35W 13D 10L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 35W 14D 9L from 58 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.03 PPG for PAOK against 2.05 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.24 PPG from their last 29 home games (20W 5D 4L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 15W 9D 5L from their last 29 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.03 scored and 0.74 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
PAOK (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAOK
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 35W 13D 10L in their last 58 games (2.03 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 35W 14D 9L in their last 58 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
PAOK's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.24 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.86 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 38%, Olympiakos Piraeus 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (PAOK) and 41% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAOK's recent matches and 38% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of PAOK's recent games and 41% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of PAOK's recent matches and 66% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 1-4 hammering of PAOK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 1-4 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.72 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.77 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 0.77 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.41 / defence 0.60 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.98 / defence 0.78, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 59% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 15%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Olympiakos Piraeus win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 57%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.03 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.