Lamia 2-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamia face Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Asteras Tripolis travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia in Super League 1 (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lamia have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lamia's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Asteras Tripolis away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamia 1.50 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Lamia have won 3, Asteras Tripolis 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Lamia 1–0 Asteras Tripolis — a Lamia win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 48% versus Asteras Tripolis 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 48% | Asteras Tripolis 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.64 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.966 / defence 1.138 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.044 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.283. Data: built from Lamia's last 47 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 47.
Result probabilities: Lamia 40% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 35%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.50 | Draw 3.98 | Asteras Tripolis 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lamia's last 10 home games and Asteras Tripolis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 60% (last 10 home games) | Asteras Tripolis 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 40% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Lamia 1.64 / Asteras Tripolis 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.966 / def 1.138 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.044 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Lamia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Asteras Tripolis xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis FAQs
What time does Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Lamia 2 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 22) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 40% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lamia and Asteras Tripolis will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.97x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 47 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
40%
2.50
25%
3.98
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lamia xG
Total xG
3.17
1.52
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lamia and 1.52 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Lamia have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 13W 20D 21L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 14W 18D 22L from 54 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 1.09 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 26 home games (9W 7D 10L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 4W 7D 15L from their last 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.94 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Lamia (Home) vs Asteras Tripolis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 13W 20D 21L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 14W 18D 22L in their last 54 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Lamia's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.31 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Lamia or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Jan 2023, when Asteras Tripolis won Asteras Tripolis 3-0 Lamia.
Lamia's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lamia
3
Draws
3
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2025: Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 50%, Asteras Tripolis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamia) and 42% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 27% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and Asteras Tripolis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamia's recent matches and 38% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamia's recent games and 42% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Asteras Tripolis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Lamia's recent matches and 65% of Asteras Tripolis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out Asteras Tripolis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.64 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.52 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 40% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 35%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 48%, Asteras Tripolis 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 1.09 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.