Panetolikos 1-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Panetolikos welcome Atromitos to Stadio Panetolikou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Panetolikou — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Atromitos — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 0.90 PPG, Atromitos 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Panetolikos, 2 for Atromitos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Atromitos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 48% versus Atromitos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 46% | Atromitos 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.74 xG and Atromitos 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.889 / defence 1.277 | Atromitos attack 1.020 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.306. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Panetolikos games / 47 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 37%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Atromitos 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 40% | Atromitos 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Panetolikos 1.74 / Atromitos 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.889 / def 1.277 | Atromitos attack 1.020 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Atromitos xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Panetolikos 1 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Atromitos part of?
Panetolikos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 38% chance of winning, Atromitos a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Panetolikos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
Record (2 meetings): Panetolikos 0W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 2W.
What form are Panetolikos and Atromitos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
38%
2.62
25%
4.00
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
3.44
1.70
Atromitos xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
7%
14.33
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.70 for Atromitos, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 54 games, going 10W 15D 29L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.13 PPG from 54 outings (14W 19D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 0.83 PPG, Atromitos on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 5W 8D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.73 points per game from 26 outings (4W 7D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.09 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 10W 15D 29L in their last 54 games (0.83 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 14W 19D 21L in their last 54 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Atromitos away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.88 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, Atromitos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 35%, Atromitos 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Panetolikos) and 50% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 50% of games; Atromitos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 65% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Panetolikos's recent games and 50% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Atromitos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Atromitos 1-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.74 xG and Atromitos 1.70 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Atromitos attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 38% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 37%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 46%, Atromitos 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Atromitos's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.83 PPG, Atromitos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.