Panetolikos 1-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panetolikos face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Panetolikos welcome Atromitos to Stadio Panetolikou in Super League 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Panetolikos have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Panetolikos have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Atromitos — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 0.90 PPG, Atromitos 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Panetolikos have won 0, Atromitos 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Panetolikos 2–3 Atromitos — a Atromitos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 48% versus Atromitos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 46% | Atromitos 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Panetolikos surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Atromitos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.74 xG and Atromitos 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.889 / defence 1.277 | Atromitos attack 1.020 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.306. Atromitos's defence rating of 1.225 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panetolikos's projected output up. Panetolikos's defence rating of 1.277 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atromitos's projected output up. Data: built from Panetolikos's last 47 games and Atromitos's last 47.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 37%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.62 | Draw 4.00 | Atromitos 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Panetolikos's last 10 home games and Atromitos's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panetolikos 40% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Panetolikos 1.74 / Atromitos 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.889 / def 1.277 | Atromitos attack 1.020 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Atromitos xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panetolikos vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does Panetolikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Panetolikos 1 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Atromitos part of?
Panetolikos vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 22) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 38% chance of winning, Atromitos a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Panetolikos and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panetolikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panetolikos's last 47 games and Atromitos's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
38%
2.62
25%
4.00
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
3.44
1.70
Atromitos xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
7%
14.33
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panetolikos vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.70 for Atromitos, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 54 games, going 10W 15D 29L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.13 PPG from 54 outings (14W 19D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 0.83 PPG, Atromitos on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 5W 8D 13L across their last 26 home games, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.73 points per game from their last 26 away games (4W 7D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.09 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
Panetolikos (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panetolikos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Panetolikos vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are Panetolikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 10W 15D 29L in their last 54 games (0.83 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 14W 19D 21L in their last 54 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Atromitos away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.88 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Panetolikos vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panetolikos have won 4, Atromitos have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Atromitos 1-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 35%, Atromitos 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Panetolikos) and 50% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 50% of games; Atromitos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panetolikos vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panetolikos and Atromitos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 65% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panetolikos and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Panetolikos's recent games and 50% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 77% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Atromitos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Atromitos 1-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.74 xG and Atromitos 1.70 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Atromitos attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 38% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 37%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 46%, Atromitos 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Atromitos's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.83 PPG, Atromitos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.