PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Aris Thessalonikis travel to Stadio Zosimades to take on PAS Giannina in Super League 1 (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

PAS Giannina — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, PAS Giannina have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Aris Thessalonikis's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for PAS Giannina, 4 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended PAS Giannina 0–2 Aris Thessalonikis — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 56% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 48% | Aris Thessalonikis 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.85 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.665 / defence 1.199 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.010 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.323. PAS Giannina's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Aris Thessalonikis bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling PAS Giannina's projected output down. Data: built from PAS Giannina's last 47 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 47.

Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 19% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 54%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 5.34 | Draw 3.68 | Aris Thessalonikis 1.85. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAS Giannina 40% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 40% (last 10 away games).

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