Estac Troyes 2-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estac Troyes face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bastia travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Estac Troyes have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bastia stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Bastia have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estac Troyes at 1.20 PPG versus Bastia's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Estac Troyes have won 0, Bastia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Estac Troyes 2–3 Bastia — a Bastia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bastia trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 65% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 58% | Bastia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.41 xG and Bastia 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.135 / defence 1.258 | Bastia attack 1.051 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Estac Troyes's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bastia's projected output up. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 27 games and Bastia's last 65.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 26% | Bastia 37%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.73 | Draw 3.80 | Bastia 2.70. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Estac Troyes 37% and Bastia 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 60% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 26% | Bastia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Estac Troyes 1.41 / Bastia 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.135 / def 1.258 | Bastia attack 1.051 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Estac Troyes and Bastia level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Bastia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Estac Troyes vs Bastia kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Estac Troyes 2 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Bastia part of?
Estac Troyes vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 28) (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 37% chance of winning, Bastia a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Estac Troyes and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estac Troyes vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (1.14) and Bastia's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estac Troyes's last 27 games and Bastia's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.80
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.83
1.42
Bastia xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estac Troyes vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.42 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 11W 22D 32L from 65 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 23L across 65 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bastia by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 7W 13D 12L from their last 32 home games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 8W 9D 15L across their last 32 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.25 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Bastia
Blended
Estac Troyes (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estac Troyes
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Estac Troyes vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Estac Troyes and Bastia in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 11W 22D 32L in their last 65 games (0.85 PPG), while Bastia have gone 26W 16D 23L in their last 65 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Bastia away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.06 PPG; Bastia away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 16 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Estac Troyes vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Estac Troyes have won 3, Bastia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2026: Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 69%, Bastia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Estac Troyes) and 41% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 28% of games; Bastia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estac Troyes and Bastia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Estac Troyes's games and 47% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Estac Troyes and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 41% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 69% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Bastia 2-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.41 xG and Bastia 1.42 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bastia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.14 / defence 1.26 against Bastia attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 26% | Bastia 37%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 58%, Bastia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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