Ajaccio 1-3 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajaccio and Annecy meet at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ajaccio's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's home record at Stade François Coty: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade François Coty than their overall form suggests.
Annecy (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Ajaccio's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Annecy's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ajaccio 0W, Annecy 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ajaccio half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 34% versus Annecy 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 46% | Annecy 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.41 xG and Annecy 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.059 / defence 0.745 | Annecy attack 1.065 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Ajaccio's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Ajaccio games / 65 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 49% | Draw 28% | Annecy 22%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 4.55. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajaccio as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 30% | Annecy 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 49% | Draw 28% | Annecy 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Ajaccio 1.41 / Annecy 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 1.059 / def 0.745 | Annecy attack 1.065 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Annecy xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Annecy kick off?
Ajaccio vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Annecy?
Ajaccio 1 - 3 Annecy.
Where is Ajaccio vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Annecy part of?
Ajaccio vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 49% chance of winning, Annecy a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ajaccio and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Ajaccio and Annecy in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Annecy (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 1.06x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.06x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.51
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.26
0.85
Annecy xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.85 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 17W 13D 35L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy's form line: 16W 21D 28L from 65 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Ajaccio against 1.06 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (12W 8D 12L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 5W 11D 16L from 32 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajaccio are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.02 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Annecy in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 17W 13D 35L in their last 65 games (0.98 PPG), while Annecy have gone 16W 21D 28L in their last 65 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Annecy away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.38 PPG; Annecy away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Annecy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Annecy have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ajaccio
0
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 0, Annecy have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Annecy 2-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 28%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Ajaccio) and 59% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 47% of games; Annecy in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 50% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Ajaccio's recent games and 59% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Annecy tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Annecy in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Ajaccio 1-3 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.41 xG and Annecy 0.85 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 1.06 / defence 0.74 against Annecy attack 1.06 / defence 1.14, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 49% | Draw 28% | Annecy 22%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 46%, Annecy 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 0.98 PPG, Annecy 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.