Dunkerque 1-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 47%, yet in-form Dunkerque provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dunkerque vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees PAU travel to Stade Marcel-Tribut to take on Dunkerque. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Marcel-Tribut this season.
PAU — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Dunkerque are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Dunkerque, 0 for PAU and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
PAU in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 41% versus PAU 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 44% | PAU 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.97 xG and PAU 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.873 / defence 1.330 | PAU attack 0.997 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Data: 27 Dunkerque games / 65 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 28% | PAU 47%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | PAU 2.13. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dunkerque (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 30% | PAU 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 28% | PAU 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Dunkerque 0.97 / PAU 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.873 / def 1.330 | PAU attack 0.997 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: PAU (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.43
PAU xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs PAU kick off?
Dunkerque vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs PAU?
Dunkerque 1 - 0 PAU.
Where is Dunkerque vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs PAU part of?
Dunkerque vs PAU is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 25% chance of winning, PAU a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dunkerque and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and PAU?
Record (3 meetings): Dunkerque 2W | Draws 1 | PAU 0W.
What form are Dunkerque and PAU in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. PAU (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 0.87x the league average against PAU's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
25%
4.01
28%
3.57
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.40
1.43
PAU xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
6%
16.71
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.43 for PAU, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Dunkerque have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 8W 7D 12L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 9W 10D 8L from 27 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 1.15 PPG, PAU on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dunkerque have posted 0.85 PPG from 13 outings (3W 2D 8L).
On the road, PAU have gone 4W 5D 4L from 13 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.48 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and PAU in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while PAU have gone 9W 10D 8L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.85 PPG; PAU away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and PAU runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dunkerque have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2025, when Dunkerque won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting PAU specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Dunkerque
2
Draws
0
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 6, PAU have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Dunkerque 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and PAU?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 31%, PAU 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Dunkerque) and 54% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 54% of games; PAU in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 62% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dunkerque's recent games and 54% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and PAU tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, PAU in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat PAU 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat PAU 1-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.97 xG and PAU 1.43 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PAU landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.87 / defence 1.33 against PAU attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 25% | Draw 28% | PAU 47%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Dunkerque win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 44%, PAU 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.15 PPG, PAU 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.