Guingamp 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Estac Troyes meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Guingamp, 1.40 for Estac Troyes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Guingamp, 0 for Estac Troyes and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Guingamp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 48% versus Estac Troyes 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 45% | Estac Troyes 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.51 xG and Estac Troyes 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.038 / defence 1.201 | Estac Troyes attack 0.655 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.091. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Guingamp games / 26 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 52% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 21%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Estac Troyes 4.76. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Estac Troyes 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 52% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Guingamp 1.51 / Estac Troyes 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.038 / def 1.201 | Estac Troyes attack 0.655 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Estac Troyes xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Guingamp vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Estac Troyes?
Guingamp 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Guingamp vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Estac Troyes part of?
Guingamp vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 52% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Guingamp and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Estac Troyes in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.04x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.66x) against Guingamp's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.76
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.37
0.86
Estac Troyes xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
5%
21.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.86 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp come into this having played 64 games, going 24W 18D 22L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 0.84 PPG from 64 outings (11W 21D 32L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Guingamp's home form reads 11W 8D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.65 points per game from 31 outings (4W 8D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.17 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 66%.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 24W 18D 22L in their last 64 games (1.41 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 11W 21D 32L in their last 64 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Estac Troyes away?
Guingamp's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.32 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Estac Troyes?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 48%, Estac Troyes 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Guingamp) and 64% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games; Estac Troyes in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Guingamp's recent matches and 61% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Guingamp's matches and 64% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Guingamp and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guingamp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 27, as Guingamp and Estac Troyes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.51 xG and Estac Troyes 0.86 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.04 / defence 1.20 against Estac Troyes attack 0.66 / defence 1.24, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 52% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 21%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 45%, Estac Troyes 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.