Amiens 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 2W 6D 2L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Rodez (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Amiens against 1.60 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 47% versus Rodez 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 34% | Rodez 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.13 xG and Rodez 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.836 / defence 0.861 | Rodez attack 1.255 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Amiens games / 64 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 30% | Rodez 36%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Rodez 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Amiens 50% | Rodez 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 30% | Rodez 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Amiens 1.13 / Rodez 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.836 / def 0.861 | Rodez attack 1.255 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Rodez (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Rodez xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Rodez kick off?
Amiens vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Rodez?
Amiens 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Amiens vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Rodez part of?
Amiens vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 34% chance of winning, Rodez a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Amiens and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Rodez?
Record (5 meetings): Amiens 1W | Draws 2 | Rodez 2W.
What form are Amiens and Rodez in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Rodez (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.84x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.25x) against Amiens's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.37
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.30
1.16
Rodez xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Amiens and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Amiens and 1.16 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens come into this having played 64 games, going 22W 19D 23L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.28 PPG from 64 outings (20W 22D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Amiens against 1.28 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Amiens's home form reads 12W 10D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.25 points per game from 32 outings (10W 10D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.27 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Rodez in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 22W 19D 23L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Rodez have gone 20W 22D 22L in their last 64 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Rodez away?
Amiens's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.44 PPG; Rodez away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Amiens or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rodez in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Amiens
4
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Rodez 3-2 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 50%, Rodez 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Amiens) and 47% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Rodez in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Amiens's recent matches and 53% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Amiens's recent games and 47% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Amiens and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 28, as Amiens and Rodez drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.13 xG and Rodez 1.16 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against Rodez attack 1.25 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 34% | Draw 30% | Rodez 36%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 34%, Rodez 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.33 PPG, Rodez 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.