Toulouse 0-0 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Strasbourg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Strasbourg travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Toulouse have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Strasbourg — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Strasbourg's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Toulouse are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Toulouse's last 10 home games and Strasbourg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Toulouse have won 1, Strasbourg 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Toulouse 0–2 Strasbourg — a Strasbourg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Strasbourg trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Toulouse 57% and Strasbourg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 57% | Strasbourg 55%). Note also that Strasbourg surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Toulouse recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.60 xG and Strasbourg 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.076 / defence 1.123 | Strasbourg attack 1.021 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.334. Data: built from Toulouse's last 65 games and Strasbourg's last 65.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Strasbourg 36%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.58 | Draw 3.92 | Strasbourg 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.60 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Strasbourg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 80% (last 10 home games) | Strasbourg 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Strasbourg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Toulouse 1.60 / Strasbourg 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.076 / def 1.123 | Strasbourg attack 1.021 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Strasbourg xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Strasbourg FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Strasbourg kick off?
Toulouse vs Strasbourg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
Toulouse 0 - 0 Strasbourg.
Where is Toulouse vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Strasbourg part of?
Toulouse vs Strasbourg is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 28) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 39% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Toulouse and Strasbourg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Toulouse vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (1.08) and Strasbourg's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 65 games and Strasbourg's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.92
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.13
1.53
Strasbourg xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Strasbourg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.53 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse's recent record stands at 21W 17D 27L from 65 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 21D 27L across 65 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.23 PPG, Strasbourg on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 9W 11D 12L from their last 32 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 7W 11D 14L across their last 32 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.25 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 68%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
Toulouse (Home) vs Strasbourg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Toulouse vs Strasbourg Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 21W 17D 27L in their last 65 games (1.23 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 17W 21D 27L in their last 65 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Strasbourg away?
Toulouse's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.19 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Toulouse have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Toulouse's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Toulouse
2
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Strasbourg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Strasbourg?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 4, Strasbourg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Strasbourg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Toulouse 3-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Strasbourg?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Toulouse at 66%, Strasbourg at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Toulouse) and 56% (Strasbourg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Strasbourg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Strasbourg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Toulouse's games and 72% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Toulouse and Strasbourg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Toulouse's recent games and 56% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Strasbourg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Toulouse's recent matches and 91% of Strasbourg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Toulouse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 28, as Toulouse and Strasbourg drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.60 xG and Strasbourg 1.53 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Strasbourg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Strasbourg attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Strasbourg 36%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 57%, Strasbourg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Strasbourg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.23 PPG, Strasbourg 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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