Monaco 1-0 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Monaco welcome Rennes to Stade Louis-II. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 16:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Louis-II — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rennes — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Monaco) versus 2.00 (Rennes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Monaco, 1 for Rennes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Monaco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Monaco in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Rennes in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Monaco 63% and Rennes 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 65% | Rennes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.24 xG and Rennes 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.975 / defence 0.960 | Rennes attack 0.915 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.297. Data: 65 Monaco games / 65 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 37% | Draw 31% | Rennes 32%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Rennes 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 60% | Rennes 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 37% | Draw 31% | Rennes 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Monaco 1.24 / Rennes 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.975 / def 0.960 | Rennes attack 0.915 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Monaco (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Rennes xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Rennes kick off?
Monaco vs Rennes kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Rennes?
Monaco 1 - 0 Rennes.
Where is Monaco vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Rennes part of?
Monaco vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 37% chance of winning, Rennes a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Monaco and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Rennes?
Record (5 meetings): Monaco 3W | Draws 1 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Monaco and Rennes in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Rennes (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Monaco's attack at 0.97x the league average against Rennes's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
37%
2.71
31%
3.21
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.38
1.14
Rennes xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Monaco and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Monaco and 1.14 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 33W 15D 17L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes's form line: 31W 14D 20L from 65 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 1.75 PPG, Rennes on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (15W 6D 11L).
On the road, Rennes have gone 9W 11D 12L from 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Monaco are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.68 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Rennes in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 33W 15D 17L in their last 65 games (1.75 PPG), while Rennes have gone 31W 14D 20L in their last 65 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Rennes away?
Monaco's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.59 PPG; Rennes away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2026, when Monaco won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monaco's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Monaco
1
Draws
2
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Rennes?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 7, Rennes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Monaco 4-0 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Rennes?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 59%, Rennes 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Monaco) and 47% (Rennes).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Monaco's games and 62% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Monaco's recent games and 47% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Rennes tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Rennes in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Rennes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Rennes 1-0 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.24 xG and Rennes 1.14 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rennes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Rennes attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 37% | Draw 31% | Rennes 32%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 65%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Rennes's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.75 PPG, Rennes 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.