Clermont Foot 0-3 Toulouse – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Toulouse at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Toulouse encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Clermont Foot welcome Toulouse to Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Clermont Foot — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Clermont Foot at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Toulouse have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Toulouse's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Clermont Foot, 0 for Toulouse and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Clermont Foot 2–2 Toulouse — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Toulouse in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 53% versus Toulouse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Toulouse 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Clermont Foot surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Toulouse surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Clermont Foot recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.14 xG and Toulouse 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.839 / defence 1.253 | Toulouse attack 0.892 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.283. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Toulouse's projected output up. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 64 games and Toulouse's last 64.

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 43%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.43 | Draw 3.59 | Toulouse 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 50% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 50% (last 10 away games).

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