Rennes 1-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rennes face Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 29). Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Rennes (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Rennes have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Toulouse have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Rennes, 1.60 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Rennes 0–0 Toulouse — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 58% | Toulouse 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rennes surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Toulouse surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Rennes recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.49 xG and Toulouse 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.202 / defence 0.909 | Toulouse attack 1.009 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.289. Data: built from Rennes's last 66 games and Toulouse's last 66.
Result probabilities: Rennes 43% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 29%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.32 | Draw 3.58 | Toulouse 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 70% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 29 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 43% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Rennes 1.49 / Toulouse 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.202 / def 0.909 | Toulouse attack 1.009 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Rennes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Toulouse xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Toulouse kick off?
Rennes vs Toulouse kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Rennes 1 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Rennes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Toulouse part of?
Rennes vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 43% chance of winning, Toulouse a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rennes and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.20) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.01x) against Rennes's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 66 games and Toulouse's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.58
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.67
1.18
Toulouse xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rennes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Rennes and 1.18 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rennes's recent record stands at 31W 14D 21L from 66 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 27L across 66 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Rennes against 1.23 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 22W 3D 8L from their last 33 home games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Toulouse's away record stands at 12W 6D 15L across their last 33 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.26 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
Rennes (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 31W 14D 21L in their last 66 games (1.62 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 21W 18D 27L in their last 66 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Toulouse away?
Rennes's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.09 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rennes
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Toulouse?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 2, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Rennes 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 54%, Toulouse 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Rennes and 61% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Toulouse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rennes's recent matches and 48% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rennes and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Rennes's matches and 61% of Toulouse's.
Do Rennes and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Rennes's recent matches and 70% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Rennes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Rennes 1-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.49 xG and Toulouse 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.20 / defence 0.91 against Toulouse attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 43% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 29%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 58%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.62 PPG, Toulouse 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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