Nantes 1-3 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lyon (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Nantes face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantes host Lyon at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Ligue 1 (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 7 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nantes stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Nantes at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lyon — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lyon's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Lyon have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Nantes.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2023, ended Nantes 0–1 Lyon — a Lyon win.
Lyon have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lyon trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 46% versus Lyon 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 0.98 xG and Lyon 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.723 / defence 1.190 | Lyon attack 1.130 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.286. Nantes's attack rating of 0.723 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Nantes's last 65 games and Lyon's last 65.
Result probabilities: Nantes 20% | Draw 26% | Lyon 54%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 4.98 | Draw 3.83 | Lyon 1.86. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Nantes 20% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 20% | Draw 26% | Lyon 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Nantes 0.98 / Lyon 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.723 / def 1.190 | Lyon attack 1.130 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Lyon (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Lyon xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nantes vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Nantes vs Lyon kick off?
Nantes vs Lyon kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Nantes 1 - 3 Lyon.
Where is Nantes vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Lyon part of?
Nantes vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 28) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 20% chance of winning, Lyon a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nantes and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nantes vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nantes's last 65 games and Lyon's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
20%
4.98
26%
3.83
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.71
1.73
Lyon xG
4.98
20%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
28.10
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nantes vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Nantes and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Nantes and 1.73 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes come into this having played 65 games, going 15W 19D 31L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.49 PPG from 65 outings (28W 13D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nantes's home form reads 8W 10D 14L across their last 32 home games, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.44 points per game from their last 32 away games (14W 4D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.48 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 60%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Lyon
Blended
Nantes (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nantes
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Nantes vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Nantes and Lyon in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 15W 19D 31L in their last 65 games (0.98 PPG), while Lyon have gone 28W 13D 24L in their last 65 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.06 PPG; Lyon away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Nov 2025, when Lyon won Lyon 3-0 Nantes.
Nantes's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nantes
3
Draws
7
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Nantes vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lyon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Nantes have won 0, Lyon have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Nantes 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 41%, Lyon 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nantes) and 62% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nantes vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nantes and Lyon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Nantes's recent matches and 62% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nantes and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nantes's recent games and 62% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Nantes's recent matches and 66% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Nantes 1-3 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 0.98 xG and Lyon 1.73 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lyon outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.72 / defence 1.19 against Lyon attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 20% | Draw 26% | Lyon 54%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Nantes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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