Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Beijing Guoan travel to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 0W 0D 10L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beijing Guoan away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beijing Guoan are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 60% of Beijing Guoan's (from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 3 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2023, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–5 Beijing Guoan — a Beijing Guoan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 47% versus Beijing Guoan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64% | Beijing Guoan 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Shenzhen Ruby FC surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Beijing Guoan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.678 / defence 1.440 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.124 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.440 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beijing Guoan's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 62 games and Beijing Guoan's last 63.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 16% | Draw 21% | Beijing Guoan 63%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 6.35 | Draw 4.66 | Beijing Guoan 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 16% | Draw 21% | Beijing Guoan 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 / Beijing Guoan 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.678 / def 1.440 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.124 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Beijing Guoan xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 3 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 16% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.68) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 62 games and Beijing Guoan's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
16%
6.35
21%
4.66
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.91
2.01
Beijing Guoan xG
6.35
16%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
13%
7.47
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
2%
47.46
25%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 2.01 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 62 games, going 12W 6D 44L for 0.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.71 PPG from 62 outings (30W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 8W 2D 21L across their last 31 home games, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.61 points per game from their last 31 away games (14W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.37 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.71 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 44L in their last 62 games (0.68 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 30W 16D 16L in their last 62 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.84 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 4 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Jul 2023, when Beijing Guoan won Beijing Guoan 5-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 November 2023: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 45%, Beijing Guoan 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 64% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 64% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 64% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 80% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.01 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.44 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.12 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 16% | Draw 21% | Beijing Guoan 63%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%, Beijing Guoan 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.