Nantong Zhiyun 1-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Match Analysis

Nantong Zhiyun host Tianjin Teda at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Nantong Zhiyun — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Tianjin Teda — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Tianjin Teda 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2023, ended Nantong Zhiyun 1–1 Tianjin Teda — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Nantong Zhiyun trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Tianjin Teda trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 55% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 31% | Tianjin Teda 34%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nantong Zhiyun surrender their half-time lead 80% of the time, while Tianjin Teda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.58 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.524 / defence 1.112 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.067 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating of 0.524 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. Tianjin Teda bring a tight defence (rating 0.730, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Nantong Zhiyun's projected output down. Data: built from Nantong Zhiyun's last 29 games and Tianjin Teda's last 62.

Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 14% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 59%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 7.09 | Draw 3.69 | Tianjin Teda 1.70. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (59%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Nantong Zhiyun's lower xG of 0.58 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nantong Zhiyun's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nantong Zhiyun 40% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 50% (last 10 away games).

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