Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Wuhan Three Towns (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wuhan Three Towns face Shenzhen Ruby FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuhan Sports Center Stadium plays host to Wuhan Three Towns versus Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 6W 2D 2L at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 0W 0D 10L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Wuhan Three Towns's favour (1.80 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, Wuhan Three Towns are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2023, ended 3–1 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wuhan Three Towns and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 59% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.79 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.059 / defence 0.992 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.749 / defence 1.727. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.194. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.727 — this is suppressing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Wuhan Three Towns games / 61 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 77% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 9%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 77% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 55% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 2.79 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.059 / def 0.992 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.749 / def 1.727 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.79
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
55%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 77% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (3 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 3W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating (1.06) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.73), the model arrives at 2.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.75x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
77%
1.30
14%
7.18
9%
10.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.79
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.67
0.89
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.30
77%
Home win
7.18
14%
Draw
10.86
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
6%
16.23
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
1%
176.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.89 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 36W 12D 13L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form line: 12W 6D 43L from 61 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Wuhan Three Towns are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.90 PPG from 30 outings (17W 6D 7L).
On the road, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 4D 22L from 30 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.84 scored and 2.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 36W 12D 13L in their last 61 games (1.97 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 43L in their last 61 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.90 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Wuhan Three Towns go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 5-1 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 57%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Wuhan Three Towns and 70% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 70% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 2.79 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.89 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.73, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 77% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 9%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.