Dalian Aerbin 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dalian Aerbin face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SHANGHAI SIPG travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Aerbin in Super League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Aerbin stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SHANGHAI SIPG are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, SHANGHAI SIPG have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Dalian Aerbin.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2023, ended Dalian Aerbin 1–1 SHANGHAI SIPG — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 59% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 56% | SHANGHAI SIPG 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dalian Aerbin surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while SHANGHAI SIPG have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.85 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.758 / defence 1.084 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.381 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Dalian Aerbin's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. SHANGHAI SIPG bring a tight defence (rating 0.741, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dalian Aerbin's projected output down. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack rating of 1.381, which lifts their away xG to 1.86. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 63 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 63.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 16% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 61%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 6.14 | Draw 4.37 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.64. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 60% (last 10 home games) | SHANGHAI SIPG 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 16% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.85 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.758 / def 1.084 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.381 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.86
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 16% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (0.76) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 63 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
16%
6.14
23%
4.37
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.71
1.86
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
6.14
16%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
3%
39.46
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 12.4 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.86 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 16W 20D 27L from 63 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 38W 11D 14L across 63 games — 1.98 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Aerbin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 10W 12D 9L from their last 31 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 19W 5D 7L across their last 31 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.79 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs SHANGHAI SIPG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 16W 20D 27L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 38W 11D 14L in their last 63 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.35 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 4 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won Dalian Aerbin 0-5 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 November 2023: Dalian Aerbin 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 68%, SHANGHAI SIPG 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dalian Aerbin) and 55% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 45% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 55% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 63% of SHANGHAI SIPG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Dalian Aerbin 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Dalian Aerbin 2-3 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.85 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.86 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.38 / defence 0.74, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 16% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 61%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 56%, SHANGHAI SIPG 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.