Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 44%, yet in-form Qingdao Jonoon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cangzhou Stadium plays host to Shijiazhuang Y. J. versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Qingdao Jonoon are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 0 for Qingdao Jonoon and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2023, ended Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1–1 Qingdao Jonoon — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Shijiazhuang Y. J. half-time and goal-timing data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 62% versus Qingdao Jonoon 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52% | Qingdao Jonoon 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.29 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.800 / defence 1.107 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.675 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.675 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 63 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 29.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 26%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.25 | Draw 3.42 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Jonoon (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 home games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.29 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.800 / def 1.107 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.675 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Qingdao Jonoon xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon FAQs
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 44% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.80x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.68x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 63 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.42
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.22
0.93
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.93 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 6D 15L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Qingdao Jonoon's form line: 7W 6D 16L from 29 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 0.93 for Qingdao Jonoon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 14 home games (5W 3D 6L).
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 0W 3D 11L from their last 14 away games — 0.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.17 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Home) vs Qingdao Jonoon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon Form FAQs
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 8W 6D 15L in their last 29 games (1.03 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 6D 16L in their last 29 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.29 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 2 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Qingdao Jonoon have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2024: Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon?
Qingdao Jonoon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 64%, Qingdao Jonoon 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 36% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 29% of games; Qingdao Jonoon in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 43% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 36% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Jonoon drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.29 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Qingdao Jonoon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.68 / defence 1.07, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 26%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%, Qingdao Jonoon 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.03 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.