Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island at 62% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Guzhenkou University Sports Center to take on Qingdao Youth Island in Super League (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 11:35 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Sichuan Jiuniu — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sichuan Jiuniu's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Qingdao Youth Island 1.30 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Qingdao Youth Island: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Sichuan Jiuniu, with 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Qingdao Youth Island 2–1 Sichuan Jiuniu — a Qingdao Youth Island win.

The head-to-head data gives Qingdao Youth Island an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Sichuan Jiuniu in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 60% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%). Note also that Sichuan Jiuniu surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Qingdao Youth Island recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 2.21 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.942 / defence 1.014 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.937 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.794 / away 1.170. Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating of 1.310 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Qingdao Youth Island's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 32 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 62% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 18%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.61 | Draw 4.92 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.65. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Youth Island (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

Form (Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 home games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 65% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Qingdao Youth Island 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Youth Island 50% (last 10 home games) | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Qingdao Youth Island 32 games, Sichuan Jiuniu 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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