Tianjin Teda 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua meet at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 games at TEDA Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Tianjin Teda 2W, Shanghai Shenhua 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 52% versus Shanghai Shenhua 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 43% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.31 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.972 / defence 0.963 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.902 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.194. Data: 61 Tianjin Teda games / 62 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 29%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 70% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.31 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.972 / def 0.963 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.902 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Shanghai Shenhua xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 43% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.97) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.90x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.61
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.35
1.04
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.04 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 24W 21D 16L from 61 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 28W 17D 16L across 61 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.66 for Shanghai Shenhua. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 12W 13D 5L from 30 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 12W 9D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.20 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 21D 16L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 28W 17D 16L in their last 61 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.63 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 53%, Shanghai Shenhua 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 47% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Tianjin Teda's games and 57% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 1-1 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.31 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.04 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 29%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, Shanghai Shenhua 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.52 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.