Nantong Zhiyun 1-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 29 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Nantong Zhiyun — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 2W 4D 3L from their last 9 home games — 1.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Nantong Zhiyun's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Nantong Zhiyun 1–1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantong Zhiyun 61% and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.20 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.669 / defence 1.200 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.048 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.202. Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating of 0.669 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Data: built from Nantong Zhiyun's last 18 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 52.
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.61 | Draw 3.32 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nantong Zhiyun's last 9 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nantong Zhiyun 56% (last 9 home games) | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, matchday 19 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.20 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.669 / def 1.200 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.048 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. FAQs
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Super League fixture (matchday 19) (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 28% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nantong Zhiyun's attack at 0.67x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nantong Zhiyun's last 18 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
28%
3.61
30%
3.32
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.71
1.51
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
6%
16.40
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.51 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Nantong Zhiyun have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 2W 8D 8L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 5W 6D 7L from 18 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantong Zhiyun on 0.78 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 0.88 PPG from their last 8 home games (1W 4D 3L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 3D 3L from their last 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.17 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 72%.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun (Home) vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Form FAQs
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 8D 8L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.88 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 20 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Nantong Zhiyun's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
3
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 October 2024: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-0 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nantong Zhiyun at 62%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 50% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nantong Zhiyun's games and 75% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 75% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shijiazhuang Y. J. edge out Nantong Zhiyun 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Nantong Zhiyun 1-2 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.20 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.51 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.67 / defence 1.20 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 28%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantong Zhiyun 0.78 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.