Henan Jianye 3-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Henan Jianye welcome Shenzhen Ruby FC to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 28 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Henan Jianye stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shenzhen Ruby FC — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
When travelling, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.70 conceded per game.
Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Henan Jianye, 1 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Henan Jianye 1–1 Shenzhen Ruby FC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 49% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.02 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.773 / defence 0.892 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.853 / defence 1.718. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.202. Henan Jianye's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 2.02. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.718 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Henan Jianye's projected output up. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 51 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 51.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 61% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.64 | Draw 4.06 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 6.95. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 60% (last 10 home games) | Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, matchday 19 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 61% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Henan Jianye 2.02 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.773 / def 0.892 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.853 / def 1.718 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 28 July 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Henan Jianye 3 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Super League fixture (matchday 19) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 61% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.77x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 51 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.06
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.93
0.92
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
2%
52.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.92 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 19W 15D 17L from 51 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 33L across 51 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Henan Jianye by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shenzhen Ruby FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 11W 6D 7L from their last 24 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 4W 4D 16L across their last 24 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.92 scored and 2.33 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Shenzhen Ruby FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Form FAQs
What form are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 19W 15D 17L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 33L in their last 51 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.62 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 28 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 July 2023: Henan Jianye 3-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Henan Jianye) and 67% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye have failed to score in 29% of games; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Henan Jianye's matches and 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 79% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 3-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.02 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.92 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.77 / defence 0.89 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.72, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 61% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 14%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.