Henan Jianye 3-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Henan Jianye welcome Shenzhen Ruby FC to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shenzhen Ruby FC — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.70 conceded per game.
Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 1, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 49% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.02 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.773 / defence 0.892 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.853 / defence 1.718. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.202. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 2.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.718 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Henan Jianye games / 51 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 61% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 60% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 61% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Henan Jianye 2.02 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.773 / def 0.892 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.853 / def 1.718 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 28 July 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Henan Jianye 3 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 61% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (4 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 2 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.77x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.06
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.93
0.92
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
2%
52.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.92 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 19W 15D 17L from 51 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 33L across 51 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Henan Jianye by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shenzhen Ruby FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 4W 4D 16L across 24 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.92 scored and 2.33 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 19W 15D 17L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 33L in their last 51 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.62 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2023, when Henan Jianye 3-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Henan Jianye) and 67% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye have failed to score in 29% of games; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Henan Jianye's matches and 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 3-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.02 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.92 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.77 / defence 0.89 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.72, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 61% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 14%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.