Charleroi 1-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Charleroi at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host AS Eupen at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 17:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AS Eupen — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
AS Eupen away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 0.80 PPG versus AS Eupen's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Charleroi hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for AS Eupen and 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Charleroi 0–2 AS Eupen — a AS Eupen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Charleroi and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 60% versus AS Eupen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 56% | AS Eupen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.89 xG and AS Eupen 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.062 / defence 1.337 | AS Eupen attack 0.729 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.226. AS Eupen's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Charleroi's defence rating of 1.337 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Eupen's projected output up. Data: built from Charleroi's last 55 games and AS Eupen's last 56.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 22%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.95 | Draw 3.72 | AS Eupen 4.60. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Charleroi 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and AS Eupen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 90% (last 10 home games) | AS Eupen 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Charleroi 1.89 / AS Eupen 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.062 / def 1.337 | AS Eupen attack 0.729 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.20
AS Eupen xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs AS Eupen FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs AS Eupen kick off?
Charleroi vs AS Eupen kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Charleroi 1 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is Charleroi vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs AS Eupen part of?
Charleroi vs AS Eupen is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 51% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Charleroi and AS Eupen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charleroi vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.06x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 55 games and AS Eupen's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.72
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.09
1.20
AS Eupen xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
15%
6.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
3%
30.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs AS Eupen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Charleroi and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.20 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 12D 24L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
AS Eupen's form line: 13W 10D 32L from 55 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.25 PPG, AS Eupen on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 27 home games (12W 5D 10L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 6W 4D 17L from their last 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.13 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
Charleroi (Home) vs AS Eupen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Charleroi vs AS Eupen Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 13W 10D 32L in their last 55 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or AS Eupen away?
Charleroi's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.52 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charleroi have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Dec 2021, when Charleroi won AS Eupen 0-4 Charleroi.
Charleroi's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Charleroi
0
Draws
1
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs AS Eupen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 7, AS Eupen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and AS Eupen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2024: AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 70%, AS Eupen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Charleroi) and 52% (AS Eupen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs AS Eupen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and AS Eupen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Charleroi's games and 48% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and AS Eupen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Charleroi's matches and 52% of AS Eupen's.
Do Charleroi and AS Eupen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Charleroi's recent matches and 63% of AS Eupen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out AS Eupen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat AS Eupen 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.89 xG and AS Eupen 1.20 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. AS Eupen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.06 / defence 1.34 against AS Eupen attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 22%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 56%, AS Eupen 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Eupen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.25 PPG, AS Eupen 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.