Union St. Gilloise 3-2 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees RWDM travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 31 January 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Stade Joseph Mariën this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RWDM — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise have won 1, RWDM 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
RWDM trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 68% and RWDM 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | RWDM 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.67 xG and RWDM 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.203 / defence 0.846 | RWDM attack 0.791 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.212. RWDM bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Union St. Gilloise games / 22 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 76% | Draw 17% | RWDM 8%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.32 | Draw 5.88 | RWDM 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 70% | RWDM 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 76% | Draw 17% | RWDM 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 53% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.67 / RWDM 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.203 / def 0.846 | RWDM attack 0.791 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.81
RWDM xG
53%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM?
Union St. Gilloise 3 - 2 RWDM.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 76% chance of winning, RWDM a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and RWDM?
Record (1 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 1W | Draws 0 | RWDM 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and RWDM in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. RWDM (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.20x the league average against RWDM's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 2.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
76%
1.32
17%
5.91
8%
13.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.49
0.81
RWDM xG
1.32
76%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
13.18
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
7%
14.50
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
191.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.81 for RWDM, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 54 games, going 37W 11D 6L for 2.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RWDM sit at 1.67 PPG from 54 outings (26W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of RWDM — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 20W 3D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, RWDM have taken 1.41 points per game from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.63 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; RWDM in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and RWDM in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 37W 11D 6L in their last 54 games (2.26 PPG), while RWDM have gone 26W 12D 16L in their last 54 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or RWDM away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.33 PPG; RWDM away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and RWDM?
From 2 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 2, RWDM have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2024, when Union St. Gilloise 3-2 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and RWDM?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 59%, RWDM 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Union St. Gilloise and 70% for RWDM. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play RWDM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 70% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 70% of RWDM's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and RWDM tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, RWDM in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out RWDM 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat RWDM 3-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.67 xG and RWDM 0.81 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. RWDM outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.20 / defence 0.85 against RWDM attack 0.79 / defence 1.37, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 76% | Draw 17% | RWDM 8%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 76%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, RWDM 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
RWDM's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RWDM (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.