St. Truiden 4-1 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and Gent meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 1 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Gent have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gent have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.60 for Gent. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for St. Truiden, 0 for Gent and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gent — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 48% versus Gent 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 41% | Gent 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.01 xG and Gent 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.765 / defence 0.942 | Gent attack 1.045 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.226. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 St. Truiden games / 56 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Gent 38%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Gent 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 50% | Gent 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Gent 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG St. Truiden 1.01 / Gent 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.765 / def 0.942 | Gent attack 1.045 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Gent (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Gent xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Gent kick off?
St. Truiden vs Gent kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 1 February 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
St. Truiden 4 - 1 Gent.
Where is St. Truiden vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Gent part of?
St. Truiden vs Gent is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 28% chance of winning, Gent a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both St. Truiden and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
Record (1 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 1 | Gent 0W.
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Gent (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.04x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
28%
3.52
33%
2.99
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.22
1.21
Gent xG
3.52
28%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.76
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.21 for Gent, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 17W 19D 20L from 56 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 28W 16D 12L across 56 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 10W 7D 10L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 12W 7D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.96 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 17W 19D 20L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Gent have gone 28W 16D 12L in their last 56 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.37 PPG; Gent away: 1.59 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Gent in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, Gent have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 41%, Gent 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (St. Truiden) and 52% (Gent).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 37% of games; Gent in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 48% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of St. Truiden's recent games and 52% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Gent tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gent in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St. Truiden run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gent.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Gent 4-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.01 xG and Gent 1.21 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.77 / defence 0.94 against Gent attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Gent 38%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 41%, Gent 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Gent's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with St. Truiden winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.