OH Leuven 2-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Genk (34%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as OH Leuven face Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genk make the trip to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion to face OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 17:45 UK time.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — OH Leuven are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Genk have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Genk's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Genk are 0.90 PPG clear of OH Leuven over their recent games (1.50 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Genk have the stronger record — 3 wins to OH Leuven's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended OH Leuven 1–3 Genk — a Genk win.
Genk have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Genk — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 61% and Genk 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 57% | Genk 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OH Leuven surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Genk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.29 xG and Genk 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.950 / defence 0.915 | Genk attack 1.161 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.226. Data: built from OH Leuven's last 56 games and Genk's last 56.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 34% | Draw 32% | Genk 34%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.95 | Draw 3.14 | Genk 2.91. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — OH Leuven 34% and Genk 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OH Leuven 50% (last 10 home games) | Genk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 34% | Draw 32% | Genk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG OH Leuven 1.29 / Genk 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.950 / def 0.915 | Genk attack 1.161 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — OH Leuven and Genk level at 34% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Genk xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OH Leuven vs Genk FAQs
What time does OH Leuven vs Genk kick off?
OH Leuven vs Genk kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Genk?
OH Leuven 2 - 1 Genk.
Where is OH Leuven vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Genk part of?
OH Leuven vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 34% chance of winning, Genk a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both OH Leuven and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OH Leuven vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.16x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from OH Leuven's last 56 games and Genk's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
34%
2.95
32%
3.14
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.60
1.30
Genk xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OH Leuven vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.30 for Genk, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
OH Leuven come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 15D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.86 PPG from 56 outings (29W 17D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
OH Leuven's home form reads 10W 8D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.68 points per game from their last 28 away games (13W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.00 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Genk in 62%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Genk
Blended
OH Leuven (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OH Leuven
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ OH Leuven vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are OH Leuven and Genk in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 17W 15D 24L in their last 56 games (1.18 PPG), while Genk have gone 29W 17D 10L in their last 56 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.36 PPG; Genk away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 23 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OH Leuven
1
Draws
7
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ OH Leuven vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Genk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OH Leuven have won 2, Genk have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2026: OH Leuven 0-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 57%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (OH Leuven) and 57% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OH Leuven vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OH Leuven and Genk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of OH Leuven's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are OH Leuven and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of OH Leuven's matches and 57% of Genk's.
Do OH Leuven and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 79% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat Genk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Genk 2-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.29 xG and Genk 1.30 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Genk attack 1.16 / defence 0.84, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 34% | Draw 32% | Genk 34%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 57%, Genk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with OH Leuven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.