AS Eupen 1-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Antwerp (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AS Eupen face Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Eupen host Antwerp at Kehrwegstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AS Eupen — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
AS Eupen's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Antwerp have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Antwerp away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Antwerp — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of AS Eupen's games and 60% of Antwerp's (from AS Eupen's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Antwerp have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for AS Eupen.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended AS Eupen 1–4 Antwerp — a Antwerp win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Antwerp have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Antwerp in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 60% versus Antwerp 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 60% | Antwerp 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: AS Eupen surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Antwerp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.31 xG and Antwerp 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.867 / defence 1.399 | Antwerp attack 1.061 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.206. AS Eupen's defence rating of 1.399 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Antwerp's projected output up. Data: built from AS Eupen's last 55 games and Antwerp's last 55.
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 25% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 46%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 3.97 | Draw 3.48 | Antwerp 2.17. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.31 / 1.79) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AS Eupen's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Eupen 80% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 25% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG AS Eupen 1.31 / Antwerp 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.867 / def 1.399 | Antwerp attack 1.061 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Antwerp xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Eupen vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does AS Eupen vs Antwerp kick off?
AS Eupen vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Antwerp?
AS Eupen 1 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is AS Eupen vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Antwerp part of?
AS Eupen vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 25% chance of winning, Antwerp a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both AS Eupen and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Eupen vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Eupen's last 55 games and Antwerp's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
25%
3.97
29%
3.48
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.10
1.79
Antwerp xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
4%
23.79
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Eupen vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.79 for Antwerp, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 12W 10D 33L from 55 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 28W 16D 11L across 55 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 6W 6D 15L from their last 27 home games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 9W 9D 9L across their last 27 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antwerp's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.75 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Antwerp in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
AS Eupen (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Eupen
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ AS Eupen vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are AS Eupen and Antwerp in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 12W 10D 33L in their last 55 games (0.84 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 28W 16D 11L in their last 55 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.89 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.33 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Antwerp in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Oct 2023, when Antwerp won Antwerp 4-1 AS Eupen.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
AS Eupen
0
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Eupen vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Antwerp?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Eupen have won 1, Antwerp have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 January 2024: AS Eupen 1-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 70%, Antwerp 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (AS Eupen) and 44% (Antwerp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 37%; Antwerp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Eupen vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Eupen and Antwerp matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of AS Eupen's games and 41% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AS Eupen and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AS Eupen's matches and 44% of Antwerp's.
Do AS Eupen and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 74% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AS Eupen defy the odds to beat Antwerp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen beat Antwerp 1-0 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.31 xG and Antwerp 1.79 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.87 / defence 1.40 against Antwerp attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 25% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 46%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a AS Eupen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 60%, Antwerp 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with AS Eupen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Eupen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.