Khorfakkan 2-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC meet at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 26 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khorfakkan have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Khorfakkan, 1.80 for Al-Wasl FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Wasl FC, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 4–3 with Khorfakkan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Wasl FC have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 70% and Al-Wasl FC 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 70% | Al-Wasl FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.52 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.045 / defence 1.022 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.938 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.457. Data: 43 Khorfakkan games / 43 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 40% | Draw 25% | Al-Wasl FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Wasl FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khorfakkan are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 60% | Al-Wasl FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 40% | Draw 25% | Al-Wasl FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Khorfakkan 1.52 / Al-Wasl FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.045 / def 1.022 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.938 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al-Wasl FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 16:15 on Wednesday 26 February 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Khorfakkan 2 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 40% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (6 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 4W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (0.94x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
40%
2.47
25%
4.06
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.92
1.40
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.40 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 12W 9D 22L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 28W 10D 5L from 43 games, 2.19 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 13W 6D 2L from 21 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 28W 10D 5L in their last 43 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.24 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 1-5 on 11 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
5
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 3, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 5-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 62%, Al-Wasl FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Khorfakkan and 71% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC in 33%; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Khorfakkan's games and 62% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Khorfakkan's matches and 71% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al-Wasl FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Wasl FC 2-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.52 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.40 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 40% | Draw 25% | Al-Wasl FC 35%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 70%, Al-Wasl FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.