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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Baniyas SC.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Baniyas SC to Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Form Guide

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record at Rashid Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rashid Stadium.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Baniyas SC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

On current form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 2 for Baniyas SC, with 0 draws across those contests.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 5–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Baniyas SC trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 67% and Baniyas SC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 81% | Baniyas SC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.05 xG and Baniyas SC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.220 / defence 0.730 | Baniyas SC attack 0.945 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.373. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 43 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 17%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Baniyas SC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% | Baniyas SC 50%.

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