🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 4W 4D 2L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Ittihad Kalba are significantly better at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Khorfakkan have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Khorfakkan in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 2 for Khorfakkan and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% and Khorfakkan 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% | Khorfakkan 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.23 xG and Khorfakkan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.053 / defence 0.953 | Khorfakkan attack 1.005 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.465. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 42 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 56% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Khorfakkan 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad Kalba (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Khorfakkan 90% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights