Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 4W 4D 2L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Ittihad Kalba are significantly better at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khorfakkan have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Khorfakkan in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 2 for Khorfakkan and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% and Khorfakkan 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% | Khorfakkan 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.23 xG and Khorfakkan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.053 / defence 0.953 | Khorfakkan attack 1.005 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.465. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 42 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 56% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Khorfakkan 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad Kalba (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Khorfakkan 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 56% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.23 / Khorfakkan 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.053 / def 0.953 | Khorfakkan attack 1.005 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Khorfakkan xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 56% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W | Draws 3 | Khorfakkan 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (1.00x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
56%
1.78
20%
4.97
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.64
1.40
Khorfakkan xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
11%
9.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
3%
39.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.40 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 11W 14D 17L from 42 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 22L across 42 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Al-Ittihad Kalba against 1.00 for Khorfakkan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 6W 7D 8L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 4W 4D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad Kalba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.48 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 71%.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 14D 17L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 11W 9D 22L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.19 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 81% for Khorfakkan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 76% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 81% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 76% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.23 xG and Khorfakkan 1.40 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Khorfakkan attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 56% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 24%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Khorfakkan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69%, Khorfakkan 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.