Al Bataeh 0-0 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Bataeh face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba make the trip to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to face Al Bataeh in Pro League (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Thursday 27 February 2025 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Al Bataeh (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Bataeh at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al Bataeh's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) — Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Al Bataeh, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Al Bataeh 0–3 Al-Ittihad Kalba — a Al-Ittihad Kalba win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 70% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 70% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%). Note also that Al-Ittihad Kalba surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Al Bataeh recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.43 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.837 / defence 1.339 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.961 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.451. Al Bataeh's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output up. Data: built from Al Bataeh's last 43 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 43.
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.39 | Draw 4.45 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.08. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.43 / 1.87) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Bataeh's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Bataeh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 27 February 2025 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Al Bataeh 1.43 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.837 / def 1.339 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.961 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba FAQs
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Thursday 27 February 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Bataeh 0 - 0 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.84) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.96x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from Al Bataeh's last 43 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
30%
3.39
22%
4.45
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.29
1.87
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.39
30%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
15%
6.47
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
5%
21.92
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.87 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 14W 10D 19L from 43 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 18L across 43 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Al Bataeh against 1.09 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Bataeh have managed 5W 6D 10L from their last 21 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 5W 7D 9L across their last 21 away games, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.51 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Bataeh (Home) vs Al-Ittihad Kalba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Form FAQs
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad Kalba won Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-0 Al Bataeh on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 4D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
4
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Bataeh have won 3, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Al Bataeh 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Al Bataeh, 71% for Al-Ittihad Kalba — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Bataeh and 67% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Al Bataeh's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Bataeh's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Bataeh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.43 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.87 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad Kalba landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 48%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 70%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.21 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.