Al Bataeh 0-0 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba make the trip to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to face Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Thursday 27 February 2025 at 13:35 UTC.
Form
Al Bataeh (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Bataeh lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 70% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 70% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.43 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.837 / defence 1.339 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.961 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.451. Data: 43 Al Bataeh games / 43 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.08. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 70% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Feb 2025, 13:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Bataeh 1.43 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.837 / def 1.339 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.961 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 13:35 on Thursday 27 February 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Bataeh 0 - 0 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (5 meetings): Al Bataeh 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.84) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.96x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
30%
3.39
22%
4.45
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.29
1.87
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.39
30%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
15%
6.47
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
5%
21.92
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.87 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 14W 10D 19L from 43 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 18L across 43 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Al Bataeh against 1.09 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Bataeh have managed 5W 6D 10L from 21 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 5W 7D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.51 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad Kalba won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
4
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 3, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al Bataeh 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Al Bataeh, 71% for Al-Ittihad Kalba — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Bataeh and 67% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Al Bataeh's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Bataeh's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Bataeh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.43 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.87 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad Kalba landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 48%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 70%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.21 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.