Ajman 2-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ajman at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajman and Al Nasr meet at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 27 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ajman have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's home record at Ajman Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Nasr's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Ajman, 1.30 for Al Nasr — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ajman have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al Nasr in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Ajman 2W, Al Nasr 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Al Nasr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 60% and Al Nasr 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 58% | Al Nasr 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 2.54 xG and Al Nasr 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.316 / defence 1.186 | Al Nasr attack 0.872 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.425. Ajman carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Ajman games / 43 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 61% | Draw 18% | Al Nasr 21%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 1.64 | Draw 5.56 | Al Nasr 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Ajman (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.54 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 80% | Al Nasr 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 61% | Draw 18% | Al Nasr 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 71% | xG Ajman 2.54 / Al Nasr 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.316 / def 1.186 | Al Nasr attack 0.872 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Ajman (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al Nasr xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al Nasr kick off?
Ajman vs Al Nasr kicked off at 16:15 on Thursday 27 February 2025 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al Nasr?
Ajman 2 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Ajman vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al Nasr part of?
Ajman vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 61% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 21% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Ajman and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Nasr?
Record (6 meetings): Ajman 2W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 3W.
What form are Ajman and Al Nasr in?
Ajman (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ajman's attack rating (1.32) and Al Nasr's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.87x) against Ajman's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
61%
1.65
18%
5.49
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Ajman xG
Total xG
4.02
1.47
Al Nasr xG
1.65
61%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
8%
12.72
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
2%
60.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Ajman and 1.47 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al Nasr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ajman come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 12D 17L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Nasr sit at 1.51 PPG from 43 outings (19W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Ajman against 1.51 for Al Nasr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ajman's home form reads 7W 5D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Nasr have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajman are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.65 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Nasr in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 19W 8D 16L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al Nasr away?
Ajman's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.24 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 4-1 on 4 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ajman
2
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 4, Al Nasr have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Al Nasr 1-2 Ajman.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 57%, Al Nasr 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Ajman and 76% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Nasr in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ajman's games and 62% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ajman's matches and 76% of Al Nasr's.
Do Ajman and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Al Nasr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al Nasr 2-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 2.54 xG and Al Nasr 1.47 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.32 / defence 1.19 against Al Nasr attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 61% | Draw 18% | Al Nasr 21%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 58%, Al Nasr 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.26 PPG, Al Nasr 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.